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Dynamic Network Risk across main U.S. sectors
Malecha, Jan ; Baruník, Jozef (advisor) ; Čech, František (referee)
We study the effects of financial networks formed by the connectedness of stock return volatilities within sectors of the S&P 500 Index. We test whether the risk arising from dynamic volatility connections is priced in the cross-section of stock returns. Separately, for each sector, we estimate the dynamic network formed by firm-level realized volatilities from 2006 to 2018. We study how connectedness differs across sectors. Comparing the sector results, we conclude that there is a homogeneous pattern that describes the development of volatility connectedness. The pattern holds across all sectors throughout the studied period and is shaped by major financial events. We create risk factors that attempt to assess the risk arising from dynamic volatility connections. For each sector, we create a factor model that we test using the Fama-Macbeth regression. The results provide evidence that the created risk factors are priced in four out of ten sectors, that is, significant results are found in the Energy, Financials, Industrials, and Consumer Discretionary sectors.
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Commodity Connectedness: Short-run Versus Long-run
Jurka, Vojtěch ; Baruník, Jozef (advisor) ; Buzková, Petra (referee)
Commodity Connectedness: Short-run Versus Long-run Vojtěch Jurka Bachelor Thesis, IES FSV UK, 2018 The thesis contributes to empirical literature that studies volatility spillovers among the commodity and equity market, focusing on short-term and long-term linkages between them. Studying the persistence of volatility transmission is helpful for understanding the information flow, which is crucial for risk management and regulators. The persistence of volatility linkages represents how quickly information can be processed by markets. In this work, we explain the theoretical background of connectedness measures proposed by Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) and show the relationship with measures defined in the frequency domain by Baruník and Křehlík (2018), that allows us to distinguish between short and long persistent shocks in volatility of markets. We continue with the analysis of volatility transmission among stock market and key commodities which represents various sectors of the commodity market. Our first key finding is that in the period 1993- 2015 spillovers among markets more than doubled and persistence of connections have increased. Using a rolling sample over 250 days, we evaluate rich dynamics of connections between equity and commodity sectors. The dynamic analysis reveals that the global financial...
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Frequency Connectedness of Financial, Commodity, and Forex Markets
Šoleová, Juliána ; Baruník, Jozef (advisor) ; Vácha, Lukáš (referee)
This Thesis is dedicated to the variance decompositions from the VAR model un- der the Diebold, Yilmaz (2012) methodology combined with the Baruník, Křehlík (2017) method of frequencies that was used to create traditional and directional spillover tables to be compared under different frequencies. Diverse markets vari- ables were used for the analysis during the period 1/6/1999 to 29/6/2018. The S&P 500 Index represented the financial markets, EUR/USD and YEN/USD rep- resented the Forex markets, and eight types of commodities: Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Gasoline, and Propane represented energy commodities and Corn, Coffee, Wheat, and Soybeans represented food commodities. This analysis contribute to understanding of the dynamic frequency connectedness in case of a differentiated system of markets. The main finding was the strongest short-frequency reaction to shocks in case of all variables, which is opposite behavior than usually observed in banking sector frequency dynamics analyses. JEL Classication: F12, F21, F23, H25, H71, H87 Keywords: connectedness, financial market, forex market, commodity market, systemic risk, spillovers, frequency analysis Author's e-mail: 93414233@fsv.cuni.cz Supervisor's e-mail: barunik@fsv.cuni.cz
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Connectedness and spillover effects between forex and stock markets: Evidence from Scandinavia
Mkhitaryan, Arman ; Kočenda, Evžen (advisor) ; Geršl, Adam (referee)
In this thesis, we study the return and volatility spillovers between forex and stock markets in Scandinavian countries employing recently developed method- ology of spillover indices. Those measures are based on forecast error variance decomposition of generalized vector autoregressive (GVAR) model. This allows us to estimate both total and directional spillovers. Moreover, frequency connect- edness analysis is conducted by decomposing the spillover indices into frequency bands, corresponding to short-, medium- and long-run connectedness. We used daily data for major stock market indices and exchange rates of domestic cur- rency towards US dollar for Norway, Sweden, Denmark and Finland. Our data spans from February 2002 till July 2018 that covers turmoil periods of global fi- nancial crisis in 2007-2009, European sovereign debt crisis 2010-2013 and Brexit referendum in mid 2016. Our empirical analysis reveals that Norwegian financial markets do not contribute much to both return and volatility spillovers. On the other hand, euro and Danish FX market perform very similarly, by exhibiting the highest spillover contributions for both returns and volatility. Furthermore, distinct increasing trends in spillovers are revealed during the turmoil periods for most of the markets. From frequency...
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Power markets and the EU ETS: How volatility propagates across Central Europe?
Jurka, Vojtěch ; Baruník, Jozef (advisor) ; Čech, František (referee)
The thesis deals with connectedness in the uncertainty of the carbon and power markets in Central Europe. While the drivers of power price were extensively documented in the literature, we investigate how uncertainty propagates between the German power market and its production factors using a recently developed framework of connectedness measurement. The connections in uncertainty on markets are insightful for the decision of the agents that require a premium for undertaking risk. The empirical results suggest that connectedness in uncertainty significantly varies over the studied period. The interdependence of power with coal decreases while the spillovers between gas and power rise on importance reflecting the changes in generation mix of Germany. For most of the period, the volatility of carbon and power markets is highly correlated. However, the share of volatility transmission spikes several times during the period of 2016-2019. In reaction to the reform of the EU Emission Trading Scheme, the uncertainty about emission allowance prices propagates to the German power market, increasing the uncertainty about power prices on the long horizon.
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Asset Prices, Network Connectedness, and Risk Premium
Procházková, Vendula ; Baruník, Jozef (advisor) ; Kukačka, Jiří (referee)
This diploma thesis introduces the measures of network connectedness in the context of asset pricing. It proposes an asset pricing model in which the factor of connectedness is included as one of the risk factors together with the three Fama-French factors. The goal of the analysis is to examine whether the con- nectedness represents a signifcant risk factor that should be considered while determining the risk premium of the portfolio in diferent sectors in the market. Using the realized volatilities and returns of 496 assets of SP 500 index over the period 2005 - 2018, that are divided into 11 sectors, we frstly determine the linkages of connectedness between the assets in the same sector. Applying Fama-MacBeth two-step regression model, we explore the signifcance of the connectedness factor for the determination of the risk premium. We argue that the sector overall connectedness represents a signifcant risk in most of the sec- tors and should be therefore taken into account by the investors in all sectors. Moreover, the total directional connectedness that captures the spillover of shocks to one asset from the other assets in the sector, is a signifcant risk fac- tor that should increase the risk premium of the portfolio, especially in sectors such as the fnancial, health care, consumer...
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Connectedness and spillover effects between forex and stock markets: Evidence from Scandinavia
Mkhitaryan, Arman ; Kočenda, Evžen (advisor) ; Geršl, Adam (referee)
In this thesis, we study the return and volatility spillovers between forex and stock markets in Scandinavian countries employing recently developed method- ology of spillover indices. Those measures are based on forecast error variance decomposition of generalized vector autoregressive (GVAR) model. This allows us to estimate both total and directional spillovers. Moreover, frequency connect- edness analysis is conducted by decomposing the spillover indices into frequency bands, corresponding to short-, medium- and long-run connectedness. We used daily data for major stock market indices and exchange rates of domestic cur- rency towards US dollar for Norway, Sweden, Denmark and Finland. Our data spans from February 2002 till July 2018 that covers turmoil periods of global fi- nancial crisis in 2007-2009, European sovereign debt crisis 2010-2013 and Brexit referendum in mid 2016. Our empirical analysis reveals that Norwegian financial markets do not contribute much to both return and volatility spillovers. On the other hand, euro and Danish FX market perform very similarly, by exhibiting the highest spillover contributions for both returns and volatility. Furthermore, distinct increasing trends in spillovers are revealed during the turmoil periods for most of the markets. From frequency...
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Frequency connectedness and cross section of stock returns
Haas, Emma ; Baruník, Jozef (advisor) ; Kukačka, Jiří (referee)
The thesis presents a network model, where financial institutions form linkages at various investment horizons through their interdependence measured by volatility connectedness. Applying the novel framework of frequency connectedness mea- sures Baruník & Křehlík (2018), based on spectral representation of variance de- composition, we show fundamental properties of connectedness that originate in heterogeneous frequency responses to shocks. The newly proposed network mod- els characterize financial connections and systemic risk at the short-, medium- and long-term frequency. The empirical focus of this thesis is on the interde- pendence structure of US financial system, specifically, major U.S. banks in the period 2000 - 2016. In the light of frequency volatility connectedness measures, we argue that stocks with high levels of long-term connectedness represent greater systemic risk, because they are subject to persistent shocks transmitted for longer periods. When we assess institutions' risk premiums in asset pricing model, the model confirms the significance of volatility connectedness factor for asset prices. JEL Classification C18, C58, C58, G10, G15, Keywords connectedness, frequency, spectral analysis, sys- temic risk, financial network Author's e-mail 93539385@fsv.cuni.cz Supervisor's e-mail...
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Frequency Connectedness of Financial, Commodity, and Forex Markets
Šoleová, Juliána ; Baruník, Jozef (advisor) ; Vácha, Lukáš (referee)
This Thesis is dedicated to the variance decompositions from the VAR model un- der the Diebold, Yilmaz (2012) methodology combined with the Baruník, Křehlík (2017) method of frequencies that was used to create traditional and directional spillover tables to be compared under different frequencies. Diverse markets vari- ables were used for the analysis during the period 1/6/1999 to 29/6/2018. The S&P 500 Index represented the financial markets, EUR/USD and YEN/USD rep- resented the Forex markets, and eight types of commodities: Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Gasoline, and Propane represented energy commodities and Corn, Coffee, Wheat, and Soybeans represented food commodities. This analysis contribute to understanding of the dynamic frequency connectedness in case of a differentiated system of markets. The main finding was the strongest short-frequency reaction to shocks in case of all variables, which is opposite behavior than usually observed in banking sector frequency dynamics analyses. JEL Classication: F12, F21, F23, H25, H71, H87 Keywords: connectedness, financial market, forex market, commodity market, systemic risk, spillovers, frequency analysis Author's e-mail: 93414233@fsv.cuni.cz Supervisor's e-mail: barunik@fsv.cuni.cz
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